Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.008140 0.009166 0.010289 0.011611 0.013130 0.014822 0.016858
2024-12-29 0.006452 0.007827 0.009463 0.011565 0.014213 0.017459 0.021774
2025-01-05 0.005779 0.007369 0.009373 0.012109 0.015784 0.020607 0.027505
2025-01-12 0.004952 0.006557 0.008670 0.011692 0.015962 0.021874 0.030844
2025-01-19 0.004355 0.005954 0.008136 0.011384 0.016180 0.023139 0.034263
2025-01-26 0.003970 0.005585 0.007865 0.011383 0.016792 0.024994 0.038763
2025-02-02 0.003792 0.005484 0.007951 0.011894 0.018202 0.028193 0.045816
2025-02-09 0.003495 0.005174 0.007688 0.011831 0.018689 0.029969 0.050746
2025-02-16 0.003281 0.004966 0.007556 0.011949 0.019465 0.032291 0.056947
2025-02-23 0.003033 0.004680 0.007270 0.011777 0.019719 0.033726 0.061716
2025-03-02 0.002879 0.004529 0.007185 0.011928 0.020541 0.036254 0.068937
2025-03-09 0.002700 0.004322 0.006987 0.011858 0.020948 0.038053 0.074971
2025-03-16 0.002452 0.003988 0.006560 0.011365 0.020561 0.038378 0.078202
2025-03-23 0.002300 0.003808 0.006385 0.011315 0.021022 0.040448 0.085618
2025-03-30 0.002254 0.003804 0.006516 0.011846 0.022677 0.045170 0.099892
2025-04-06 0.002075 0.003551 0.006177 0.011439 0.022382 0.045733 0.104477
2025-04-13 0.001928 0.003344 0.005906 0.011139 0.022272 0.046679 0.110174
2025-04-20 0.001833 0.003227 0.005791 0.011138 0.022799 0.049119 0.120161
2025-04-27 0.001807 0.003234 0.005914 0.011636 0.024479 0.054478 0.139052
2025-05-04 0.001717 0.003114 0.005778 0.011575 0.024886 0.056848 0.150179
2025-05-11 0.001653 0.003039 0.005727 0.011690 0.025715 0.060382 0.165472
2025-05-18 0.001565 0.002910 0.005555 0.011522 0.025847 0.062150 0.175824
2025-05-25 0.001515 0.002853 0.005526 0.011670 0.026768 0.066129 0.194059